By Chris Jewers For Mailonline10:23 GMT 07 Mar 2022 , updated 10:41 GMT 07 Mar 2022
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A report published on Friday is claimed to have come from a Russian FSB agent
It claims that Russia’s chances of achieving victory in Ukraine are non-existent.
An analyst from investigative journalism group Bellingcat said he showed the report to FSB sources who said they had ‘no doubt it was written by a colleague’
Even if Putin’s forces are able to capture of kill President Zelensky, the report says that occupying Ukraine would require too many resources for Russia
An analyst from investigative journalism group Bellingcat said he showed the report to FSB sources who said they had ‘no doubt it was written by a colleague’
Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine will be a ‘total failure’ comparable to the collapse of Nazi Germany, a report by a so-called FSB analyst has claimed.
The over 2,000-word report added that Russia’s forces have ‘no options to victory, only defeat’ as they continue to meet strong Ukrainian resistance, that experts believe has surprised many in Moscow including the president himself.
It said that the number of Russians killed in Ukraine could already be over 10,000 – a figure similar to that reported by Kyiv officials – and far more than the 498 dead soldiers officially acknowledged by the Kremlin.
The whistleblower also claimed the FSB – Russia’s successor to the Soviet Union’s feared KGB – was being blamed for the failure of Moscow’s forces to make significant progress into Ukraine, despite being given no advanced warning of the invasion.
The report also said Russia’s government has lost contact with a number of its divisions that have been sent into Ukraine, meaning they had no accurate death toll.
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Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine will be a ‘total failure’ comparable to the collapse of Nazi Germany, a report by a so-called FSB analyst has claimed. Pictured: Destroyed Russian armored vehicles are seen in the city of Bucha, west of Kyiv, on March 4, 2022
Russian human rights activist and operator of the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net Vladimir Osechkin published the report on Facebook last week, according to The Times.
Christo Grozev, an expert on Russia’s security services who works for investigative journalism group Bellingcat, said he has shown the report two current or former FSB contacts who told him they had ‘no doubt it was written by a colleague’.
Writing on Twitter, Grozev said that while his contacts did not necessarily agree with all the assertions in the report, they were confident in its origin.
Giving hope to the people of Ukraine in the face of devastating attacks by Russian forces, the report said that Putin’s chances of victory in Ukraine are non-existent.
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‘By and large, [Russia] has no way out. It’s just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything,’ the report said.
It compared Russia’s mistakes to those made by Nazi Germany at the end of the Second World War, and said that Moscow’s ‘starting position’ was akin to ‘Germany in 1943-44’ – when Hitler’s chances of victory were collapsing on two fronts.
The whistleblower claimed that FSB officers have been ordered to assess the effects Western sanctions are having on Russia. The ruble has all-but collapsed and Russia has become an international pariah.
But despite the very real economic devastation, the report said officers were told that it was a hypothetical box-ticking exercise.
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The over 2,000 word report added that Russia’s forces have ‘no options to victory, only defeat’ as they continue to meet strong Ukrainian resistance, that experts believe has surprised many in Moscow including the president himself. Pictured: Putin is seen on Saturday near Moscow
‘You have to write the analysis in a way that makes Russia the victor… otherwise you get questioned for not doing good work,’ the report says. ‘Suddenly it happens and everything comes down to your completely groundless analysis.’
The letter, published in the early hours of Friday morning, also says that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov – who is usually a staunch ally of Putin’s – is furious with Moscow after his ‘kill squad’ sent to assassinate Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky was instead destroyed by Ukrainian troops.
Zelensky is said to be Putin’s No. 1 target, but even if the Russian president was successful in killing his Ukrainian counterpart, the report says that Moscow would still be unable to occupy Ukraine.
‘Even with minimum resistance from the Ukrainians we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply and logistics workers,’ the author claims.
The author also addressed the likelihood of Putin launching a nuclear strike against the West, saying it was a possibility.
They also wrote that Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, was trying to find evidence that Ukraine had built nuclear weapons to justify a pre-emptive strike.
‘Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not give anything – this is a defense breakthrough weapon), but with the aim of intimidating others,’ they wrote.
‘At the same time, the soil is being prepared to turn everything to Ukraine – Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the earth to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there.’
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Pictured: Russian armored vehicles in the city of Bucha, west of Kyiv, on March 4, 2022. According to the report, the number of Russians killed in Ukraine could already be over 10,000 – a figure that has also been reported by Kyiv officials – far more than the 498 dead soldiers officially acknowledged by the Kremlin
But despite saying there was a possibility of such a horrific event, the author added: ‘From the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that VV Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.
‘Firstly, there is more than one person making a decision, at least someone will jump off. And there are a lot of people there – there is no ‘one-man red button,’ they wrote.
‘Secondly, there are some doubts that everything is functioning [in Russia’s nuclear deterrent],’ they added, continuing: ‘Thirdly, and this is the most vile and sad thing, I personally do not believe in the readiness to sacrifice oneself of a person who does not let the members of the Federation Council, but his closest representatives and ministers, come close to him.
‘For fear of the coronavirus or an attack, it doesn’t matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted people near you, then how will you dare to destroy yourself and your loved ones.’
Amid concerns that Russia could put some of Ukraine’s cities such as the capital of Kyiv under siege, the author of the report said this was unlikely.
‘Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function,’ they wrote.
‘Humanitarian convoys from Europe [will be there in a] matter of time,’ they added.
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The report also said the government has lost contact with a number of its divisions that have been sent into Ukraine, meaning they had no accurate death toll. Pictured: A destroyed Russian army all-terrain vehicle Tigr-M (Tiger) on a road in Kharkiv, Ukraine February 28, 2022
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Pictured: A destroyed Russian military vehicles in the Sumy region, north-eastern Ukraine
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The report claims Russian forces have a ‘provisional deadline’ of June to successfully capture Ukraine, but the author said they would not last until then.
‘We have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional – because in June we have no economy left, nothing remains,’ the report said.
‘By and large, next week there will be a turning point in one of the sides, simply because the situation cannot be in such an overstrain.’
The writer said that they could not rule out the war escalating into an international conflict.
They said they were expected an advisor to send an ultimatum to the West threatening war if the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia were not removed.
‘What if the West refuses?’ they said. ‘In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939.’
Bellingcat’s Grozev was the person who reported the identities of the Salisbury poisoners in 2018. He said that while ‘Ukraine had previously leaked fake FSB letters as psy-ops,’ the report ‘appeared different’.
‘It came via a reputable source [Osechkin] and it was way longer than a forger would choose to make it,’ he wrote.
There are signs that dissent is growing in Russia as more information slips past the Kremlin’s propaganda machine.
Over the weekend, a Russian lawmaker spoke out about what she said are heavy losses being suffered by some military units fighting in Ukraine.
Lyudmila Narusova, a member of Russia’s upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, said during Friday’s livestreamed proceedings that she knew of one company which was meant to be 100 strong but ‘only four were left alive’ when the unit was withdrawn.
Narusova, the widow of President Vladimir Putin’s former political mentor Anatoly Sobchak, did not present evidence for her claims and said the Defense Ministry had refused her request to confirm the reported casualties.
Well into the second week of war, Russia’s plan to quickly overrun the country has been stymied by fierce resistance.
Its troops have made significant advances in southern Ukraine and along the coast, but many of its efforts have become stalled, including an immense military convoy that has been almost motionless for days north of Kyiv.
Today, Russia announced a yet another cease-fire and a handful of humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to flee Ukraine starting Monday, but previous such measures have fallen apart and Moscow’s armed forces continued to pummel some Ukrainian cities with rockets even after the announcement.
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The fighting has sent energy prices surging worldwide, stocks plummeting, and is threatening the food supply and livelihoods of people around the world who rely on farmland in the Black Sea region.
The death toll from the fighting, meanwhile, remains unclear. The U.N. says it has confirmed just a few hundred civilian deaths but also warned that the number is a vast undercount.
Police for the Kharkiv region said Monday that 209 people have died there alone – 133 of them civilians.
The Russian invasion has also pushed 1.5 million people to flee the country, creating what the head of the U.N. refugee agency called ‘the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.’
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The advancing centuries witnessed a constant increase of error in the doctrines put forth from Rome. Even before the establishment of the papacy the teachings of heathen philosophers had received attention and exerted an influence in the church. Many who professed conversion still clung to the tenets of their pagan philosophy, and not only continued its study themselves, but urged it upon others as a means of extending their influence among the heathen. Serious errors were thus introduced into the Christian faith. Prominent among these was the belief in man’s natural immortality and his consciousness in death. This doctrine laid the foundation upon which Rome established the invocation of saints and the adoration of the Virgin Mary. From this sprang also the heresy of eternal torment for the finally impenitent, which was early incorporated into the papal faith.
Then the way was prepared for the introduction of still another invention of paganism, which Rome named purgatory, and employed to terrify the credulous and superstitious multitudes. By this heresy is affirmed the existence of a place of torment, in which the souls of such as have not merited eternal damnation are to suffer punishment for their sins, and from which, when freed from impurity, they are admitted to heaven. (See Appendix.)
Still another fabrication was needed to enable Rome to profit by the fears and the vices of her adherents. This was supplied by the doctrine of indulgences. Full remission of sins, past, present, and future, and release from all the pains and penalties incurred, were promised to all who would enlist in the pontiff’s wars to extend his temporal dominion, to punish his enemies, or to exterminate those who dared deny his spiritual supremacy. The people were also taught that by the payment of money to the church they might free themselves from sin, and also release the souls of their deceased friends who were confined in the tormenting flames. By such means did Rome fill her coffers and sustain the magnificence, luxury, and vice of the pretended representatives of Him who had not where to lay His head. (See Appendix.)
The Scriptural ordinance of the Lord’s Supper had been supplanted by the idolatrous sacrifice of the mass. Papal priests pretended, by their senseless mummery, to convert the simple bread and wine into the actual “body and blood of Christ.”—Cardinal Wiseman, The Real Presence of the Body and Blood of Our Lord Jesus Christ in the Blessed Eucharist, Proved From Scripture, lecture 8, sec. 3, par. 26. With blasphemous presumption, they openly claimed the power of creating God, the Creator of all things. Christians were required, on pain of death, to avow their faith in this horrible, Heaven-insulting heresy. Multitudes who refused were given to the flames. (See Appendix.)
In the thirteenth century was established that most terrible of all the engines of the papacy—the Inquisition. The prince of darkness wrought with the leaders of the papal hierarchy. In their secret councils Satan and his angels controlled the minds of evil men, while unseen in the midst stood an angel of God, taking the fearful record of their iniquitous decrees and writing the history of deeds too horrible to appear to human eyes. “Babylon the great” was “drunken with the blood of the saints.” The mangled forms of millions of martyrs cried to God for vengeance upon that apostate power.
Popery had become the world’s despot. Kings and emperors bowed to the decrees of the Roman pontiff. The destinies of men, both for time and for eternity, seemed under his control. For hundreds of years the doctrines of Rome had been extensively and implicitly received, its rites reverently performed, its festivals generally observed. Its clergy were honored and liberally sustained. Never since has the Roman Church attained to greater dignity, magnificence, or power.
But “the noon of the papacy was the midnight of the world.”—J. A. Wylie, The History of Protestantism, b. 1, ch. 4. The Holy Scriptures were almost unknown, not only to the people, but to the priests. Like the Pharisees of old, the papal leaders hated the light which would reveal their sins. God’s law, the standard of righteousness, having been removed, they exercised power without limit, and practiced vice without restraint. Fraud, avarice, and profligacy prevailed. Men shrank from no crime by which they could gain wealth or position. The palaces of popes and prelates were scenes of the vilest debauchery. Some of the reigning pontiffs were guilty of crimes so revolting that secular rulers endeavored to depose these dignitaries of the church as monsters too vile to be tolerated. For centuries Europe had made no progress in learning, arts, or civilization. A moral and intellectual paralysis had fallen upon Christendom.
The condition of the world under the Romish power presented a fearful and striking fulfillment of the words of the prophet Hosea: “My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge: because thou hast rejected knowledge, I will also reject thee: … seeing thou hast forgotten the law of thy God, I will also forget thy children.” “There is no truth, nor mercy, nor knowledge of God in the land. By swearing, and lying, and killing, and stealing, and committing adultery, they break out, and blood toucheth blood.” Hosea 4:6, 1, 2. Such were the results of banishing the word of God GC 58.2 – GC 60.3
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